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Es ist ein \"Missbrauch\" des Modelers für Matrizenmultiplikation (aber nicht notwendigerweise die eleganteste Art des \"Missbrauchs\")\n\nInhaltlich geht es darum, dass es für ein Unternehmen in einem Markt Nicht-Kunden und Kunden gibt. Es wird in diesem Schritt angenommen, dass es zeitinvariante konstante Übergangswahrscheinlichkeiten zwischen den Zuständen gibt. Es gibt also jeweils eine Übergangswahrscheinlichkeit\n\n- P(Kunde bleibt Kunde), wenn ein Marktteilnehmer Kunde ist und dies auch im nächsten Zeitschritt so bleibt\n- P(Kunde wird Nicht-Kunde), wenn  ein Kunde im nächsten Zeitschritt zum Nicht-Kunden wird\n- P(Nicht-Kunde wird Kunde), wenn ein Nicht-Kunde im nächsten Zeitschritt zum Kunden wird\n- P(Nicht-Kunde bleibt Nicht-Kunde), wenn ein Maraktteilnehmer Nicht-Kunde bleibt\n\nAnfangs bein Markteintritt gibt es nur Nicht-Kunden, d.h. die Wahrscheinlichkeit P(Nicht-Kunde), dass ein Marktteilnehmer nicht Kunde ist P(Nicht-Kunde)=1. Umgekehrt gilt natürlich P(Kunde)=0, da es keine Marktteilnehmer gibt, die Kunden sind.\n\nDieses Modell geht zunächst nur von 2 Zuständen aus - es sind natürlich weitere denkbar und sinnvoll. Dummerweise steigt die Anzahl der Übergangwahrscheinlichkeiten mit dem Quadrat der Zustände ...","#focus":"AMQDsDgMtgHc_fb2i9TWyAg","@uuid":"AdH7G_VgPxtUUnrVtN70B0A","#presenterItems":[],"@startTime":1}